Recession of 2009/Tutorials: Difference between revisions

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imported>Nick Gardner
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<noinclude>{{Subpages}}</noinclude>
<noinclude>{{Subpages}}</noinclude>
==Selected economic statistics==
===Growth rates===
GDP at constant market prices<br>
% change on previous period (except last 3 columns)
::{|class="wikitable"
!
! 2006
! 2007
! 2008
! 2009
!Q1 07
!Q2 07
!Q3 07
!Q4 07
!Q1 08
!Q2 08
!Q3 08
!Q4 08
!Q1 09
!Q2 09
!Q3 09
!Q4 09
|-
|United States
| 2.8
| 2.0
| 1.1
|
| 0.0
| 1.2
| 1.6
| 0.0
| 0.2
| 0.7
| -0.1
| -1.4
| -1.6
| -0.3
| 0.9
|
|
|-
|Japan
| 2.0
| 2.4
| -0.6
|
| 1.0
| -0.3
| 0.4
| 1.0
| 0.3
| -1.2
| -0.4
| -3.2
| -3.3
|  0.6
|  1.2
|
|-
|Canada
| 3.1
| 2.7
| 0.5
|
| 1.0
| 1.0
| 0.6
| 0.2
| -0.2
| 0.1
| 0.2
| 0.8
| -1.4
| -0.6
| 0.1
|
|-
|United Kingdom
| 2.8
| 3.0
| 0.7
|
| 0.8
| 0.8
| 0.6
| 0.9
| 0.3
| 0.0
| -0.7
| -1.6
| -2.4
| -0.6
| -0.2
|  0.1
|-
|Germany
| 3.0
| 2.5
| 1.3
|
| 0.4
| 0.4
| 0.6
| 0.3
| 1.5
| -0.5
| -0.5
| -2.1
| -3.8
|  0.3
|  0.7
|
|
|-
|France
| 2.2
| 2.2
| 0.8
|
| 0.6
| 0.5
| 0.7
| 0.4
| 0.4
| -0.3
| 0.1
| -1.1
| -1.2
|  0.3
|  0.3
|
|
|-
|Italy
| 2.0
| 1.6
| -1.0
|
| 0.2
| 0.1
| 0.2
| -0.3
| 0.3
| -0.6
| -0.7
| -2.1
| -2.4
| -0.5
| 0.8
|
|}
Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators
===Unemployment rates===
:(ILO definition, seasonally adjusted)
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
!align="center"|
!align="center"| 2007 IV
!align="center"| 2008 I
!align="center"| 2008 II
!align="center"| 2008 III
!align="center"| 2008 IV
!align="center"| 2009 I
!align="center"| 2009 II
|-
|align="center"| United States
|align="center"| 4.8
|align="center"| 4.9
|align="center"| 5.4
|align="center"| 6.0
|align="center"| 6.9
|align="center"| 8.1
|align="center"| 8.2
|-
|align="center"| United Kingdom
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"| 5.4
|align="center"| 5.8
|align="center"| 6.3
|align="center"| 7.1
|align="center"| 7.7*
|-
|align="center"|Japan
|align="center"| 3.8
|align="center"| 3.9
|align="center"| 4.0
|align="center"| 4.1
|align="center"| 4.0
|align="center"| 4.5
|align="center"| 5.2
|-
|align="center"|Germany
|align="center"| 8.0
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"| 7.4
|align="center"| 7.2
|align="center"| 7.1
|align="center"| 7.7
|align="center"| 7.6
|-
|align="center"|France
|align="center"| 7.8
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"| 7.7
|align="center"| 7.8
|align="center"| 8.3
|align="center"| 8.8
|align="center"| 9.4
|}
::::::::::::::::::::::::                          * May
: (Source: OECD)[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/58/43687940.pdf]
===[[Fiscal stimulus]] packages===
: ( % of GDP)
:::::::::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"| 2008
!align="center"| 2009
!align="center"| 2010
!align="center"| Total
|-
|align="center"|United States
|align="center"|1.1
|align="center"|2.0
|align="center"|1.8
|align="center"|4.8
|-
|align="center"|United Kingdom
|align="center"|0.2
|align="center"|1.4
|align="center"|-0.1
|align="center"|1.5
|-
|align="center"|Germany
|align="center"|0.0
|align="center"|1.5
|align="center"|2.0
|align="center"|3.4
|-
|align="center"|France
|align="center"|0.0
|align="center"|0.7
|align="center"|0.7
|align="center"|1.3
|-
|align="center"|Japan
|align="center"|0.4
|align="center"|1.4
|align="center"|0.4
|align="center"|2.2
|-
|align="center"|Canada
|align="center"|0.0
|align="center"|1.5
|align="center"|1.3
|align="center"|2.7
|}
::(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/020109.pdf])
===Public debt===
:([[National debt]] % of GDP )
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"| Average <ref> average of advanced G20 countries</ref>
|-
|2007
|align="center"|188
|align="center"|104
|align="center"|64
|align="center"|63
|align="center"|62
|align="center"|44
|align="center"|78
|-
|2009
|align="center"|217
|align="center"|117
|align="center"|77
|align="center"|80
|align="center"|89
|align="center"|69
|align="center"|101
|-
|2010
|align="center"|219
|align="center"|116
|align="center"|78
|align="center"|79
|align="center"|85
|align="center"|69
|align="center"|99
|-
|2014
|align="center"|246
|align="center"|129
|align="center"|96
|align="center"|89
|align="center"|108
|align="center"|98
|align="center"|118
|}
:::::<references/>
::(Source: IMF Staff Position Note November 2009 [https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0925.pdf])
===Total debt===
(% of GDP 2008)
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
!Government
|align="center"|52
|align="center"|188
|align="center"|73
|align="center"|101
|align="center"|60
|align="center"|69
|-
!Financial institutions
|align="center"|202
|align="center"|108
|align="center"|81
|align="center"|77
|align="center"|56
|align="center"|76
|-
!Non-financial businesses
|align="center"|114
|align="center"|96
|align="center"|110
|align="center"|81
|align="center"|78
|align="center"|66
|-
!Households
|align="center"|101
|align="center"|67
|align="center"|44
|align="center"|40
|align="center"|56
|align="center"|47
|-
!Total
|align="center"|469
|align="center"|459
|align="center"|308
|align="center"|298
|align="center"|290
|align="center"|274
|-
! % growth 2000-08
|align="center"|10.2
|align="center"|0.3
|align="center"|7.7
|align="center"|6.3
|align="center"|8.1
|align="center"|2.5
|}
:(Source: ''Debt and Deleverageing, the Global Credit Bubble and its Consequences'', McKinsey, 2010)
==Leading Indicators==
Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted, per cent
<br> (long-term average = 100)<br>
Growth cycle phases of the CLI are defined as follows: expansion (increase above 100), downturn (decrease above 100), slowdown (decrease below100), recovery (increase below 100).
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"| &nbsp;&nbsp;China&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| &nbsp;&nbsp;Russia&nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
| January 2009
|align="center"|91.2
|align="center"|96.2
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|90.7
|align="center"|91.3
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|91.7
|align="center"|88.2
|-
| February 2009
|align="center"|90.2
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|96.7
|align="center"|90.3
|align="center"|90.9
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|92.6
|align="center"|87.0
|-
| March 2009
|align="center"|89.4
|align="center"|97.3
|align="center"|97.8
|align="center"|90.2
|align="center"|90.7
|align="center"|96.7
|align="center"|93.4
|align="center"|86.2
|-
| April 2009
|align="center"|88.7
|align="center"|98.8
|align="center"|99.0
|align="center"|91.0
|align="center"|91.2
|align="center"|97.5
|align="center"|94.6
|align="center"|86.2
|-
| May 2009
|align="center"|89.5
|align="center"|101.1
|align="center"|100.3
|align="center"|93.8
|align="center"|92.7
|align="center"|98.3
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|88.2
|-
| June 2009
|align="center"|94.8
|align="center"|101.4
|align="center"|100.7
|align="center"|95.6
|align="center"|94.9
|align="center"|98.9
|align="center"|97.9
|align="center"|90.9
|-
| July 2009
|align="center"|96.2
|align="center"|102.9
|align="center"|102.0
|align="center"|97.8
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|100.3
|align="center"|99.8
|align="center"|92.6
|-
| August 2009
|align="center"|97.5
|align="center"|104.3
|align="center"|103.3
|align="center"|99.9
|align="center"|97.8
|align="center"|102.2
|align="center"|101.3
|align="center"|94.2
|-
| September 2009
|align="center"|98.8
|align="center"|105.6
|align="center"|104.6
|align="center"|101.9
|align="center"|99.2
|align="center"|103.9
|align="center"|103.2
|align="center"|95.8
|}
Source: OECD Composite ''leading indicators'' [http://www.oecd.org/document/3/0,3343,en_2649_34249_42547075_1_1_1_1,00.html]
==Forecasts ==
:::'''Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product'''
:::(forecasts are shown in ''italics'')
:::{|class="wikitable"
!Date
!Source
!Country
! 2007
! 2008
! 2009
! 2010
! 2011
|-
| 30 March 2009
|World Bank [http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGEP2009/Resources/5530448-1238466339289/GEP-Update-March30.pdf]
|United States
|2.0
|''1.1''
|''-2.4''
|''2.0''
|-
|
|
|Japan
|2.1
|''-0.7''
|''-5.3''
|''1.3''
|-
|
|
|Euro area
|2.6
|''0.7''
|''-2.7''
|''0.9''
|-
|
|
|China
|12
|''9.0''
|''6.5''
|''7.3''
|-
|
|
|Developing <ref name=dev/>
|6.1
|''5.8''
|''2.2''
|''4.8''
|-
|
|
| World
|3.7
|''3.1''
|''-0.6''
|''2.9''
|-
| 9 May 2009
| ''Economist''  Poll [http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13611211]
| United States
|
|
| -''2.9''
| ''1.4''
|-
|
|
| United Kingdom
|
|
| ''-3.7''
| ''0.3''
|-
|
|
| France
|
|
| ''-2.9''
| ''0.3''
|-
|
|
| Germany
|
|
| ''-5.2''
| ''0.3''
|-
|
|
| Japan
|
|
| ''-6.4''
| ''0.6''
|-
| 3 October 2009
| International Monetary Fund [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/pdf/text.pdf]
| United States
|2.0
|0.8
|''-2.7''
|''1.5''
|-
|
|
| United Kingdom
|3.0
|0.7
|''-4.4''
|''0.9''
|-
|
|
| France
| 2.1
| 0.3
| ''-2.4''
| ''0.9''
|-
|
|
| Germany
| 2.5
| 1.3
| ''-5.3''
| ''-0.3''
|-
|
|
| Japan
| 2.4
| -0.7
| ''-5.4''
| ''1.7'
|-
|
|
| China
| 13
| 9
| ''8.5''
| ''9.0''
|-
|
|
| World
| 3.8
| ''3.1''
| ''-1.1''
| ''3.1''
|-
| November 2009
| OECD Economic Outlook [http://www.oecd.org/document/18/0,3343,en_2649_34109_20347538_1_1_1_37443,00.html]
| United States
|2.1
|0.4
| -''2.5''
| ''2.5''
| ''2.8''
|-
|
|
| United Kingdom
|2.6
|0.6
| ''-4.7''
| ''1.2''
| ''2.2''
|-
|
|
| France
| 2.3
| 0.3
| ''-2.3''
| ''1.4''
| ''1.7''
|-
|
|
| Germany
| 2.6
| 1.0
| ''-4.9''
| ''1.4''
| 1.9
|-
|
|
| Japan
| 2.3
| -0.7
| ''-5.3''
| ''1.8''
| ''2.0''
|}

Latest revision as of 02:52, 4 August 2010

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