Recession of 2009/Tutorials

Selected economic statistics

Growth rates

GDP at constant market prices
% change on previous period (except last 3 columns)

	2006	2007	2008	2009	Q1 07	Q2 07	Q3 07	Q4 07	Q1 08	Q2 08	Q3 08	Q4 08	Q1 09	Q2 09	Q3 09	Q4 09
United States	2.8	2.0	1.1		0.0	1.2	1.6	0.0	0.2	0.7	-0.1	-1.4	-1.6	-0.3	0.9
Japan	2.0	2.4	-0.6		1.0	-0.3	0.4	1.0	0.3	-1.2	-0.4	-3.2	-3.3	0.6	1.2
Canada	3.1	2.7	0.5		1.0	1.0	0.6	0.2	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.8	-1.4	-0.6	0.1
United Kingdom	2.8	3.0	0.7		0.8	0.8	0.6	0.9	0.3	0.0	-0.7	-1.6	-2.4	-0.6	-0.2
Germany	3.0	2.5	1.3		0.4	0.4	0.6	0.3	1.5	-0.5	-0.5	-2.1	-3.8	0.3	0.7
France	2.2	2.2	0.8		0.6	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.4	-0.3	0.1	-1.1	-1.2	0.3	0.3
Italy	2.0	1.6	-1.0		0.2	0.1	0.2	-0.3	0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-2.1	-2.4	-0.5	0.8

Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators

Unemployment rates

(ILO definition, seasonally adjusted)

	2007 IV	2008 I	2008 II	2008 III	2008 IV	2009 I	2009 II
United States	4.8	4.9	5.4	6.0	6.9	8.1	8.2
United Kingdom	5.1	5.1	5.4	5.8	6.3	7.1	7.7*
Japan	3.8	3.9	4.0	4.1	4.0	4.5	5.2
Germany	8.0	7.6	7.4	7.2	7.1	7.7	7.6
France	7.8	7.6	7.7	7.8	8.3	8.8	9.4

* May

(Source: OECD)[1]

Fiscal stimulus packages

( % of GDP)

	2008	2009	2010	Total
United States	1.1	2.0	1.8	4.8
United Kingdom	0.2	1.4	-0.1	1.5
Germany	0.0	1.5	2.0	3.4
France	0.0	0.7	0.7	1.3
Japan	0.4	1.4	0.4	2.2
Canada	0.0	1.5	1.3	2.7

(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [2])

Public debt

(National debt % of GDP )

	Japan	Italy	France	Germany	United States	United Kingdom	Average
2007	188	104	64	63	62	44	78
2009	217	117	77	80	89	69	101
2010	219	116	78	79	85	69	99
2014	246	129	96	89	108	98	118

average of advanced G20 countries

(Source: IMF Staff Position Note November 2009 [3])

Total debt

(% of GDP 2008)

	United Kingdom	Japan	France	Italy	United States	Germany
Government	52	188	73	101	60	69
Financial institutions	202	108	81	77	56	76
Non-financial businesses	114	96	110	81	78	66
Households	101	67	44	40	56	47
Total	469	459	308	298	290	274
% growth 2000-08	10.2	0.3	7.7	6.3	8.1	2.5

(Source: Debt and Deleverageing, the Global Credit Bubble and its Consequences, McKinsey, 2010)

Leading Indicators

Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted, per cent
(long-term average = 100)
Growth cycle phases of the CLI are defined as follows: expansion (increase above 100), downturn (decrease above 100), slowdown (decrease below100), recovery (increase below 100).

	Japan	Italy	France	Germany	United States	United Kingdom	China	Russia
January 2009	91.2	96.2	96.3	90.7	91.3	96.3	91.7	88.2
February 2009	90.2	96.3	96.7	90.3	90.9	96.3	92.6	87.0
March 2009	89.4	97.3	97.8	90.2	90.7	96.7	93.4	86.2
April 2009	88.7	98.8	99.0	91.0	91.2	97.5	94.6	86.2
May 2009	89.5	101.1	100.3	93.8	92.7	98.3	96.3	88.2
June 2009	94.8	101.4	100.7	95.6	94.9	98.9	97.9	90.9
July 2009	96.2	102.9	102.0	97.8	96.3	100.3	99.8	92.6
August 2009	97.5	104.3	103.3	99.9	97.8	102.2	101.3	94.2
September 2009	98.8	105.6	104.6	101.9	99.2	103.9	103.2	95.8

Source: OECD Composite leading indicators [4]

Forecasts

Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product

(forecasts are shown in italics)

Date	Source	Country	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
30 March 2009	World Bank [5]	United States	2.0	1.1	-2.4	2.0
		Japan	2.1	-0.7	-5.3	1.3
		Euro area	2.6	0.7	-2.7	0.9
		China	12	9.0	6.5	7.3
		Developing	6.1	5.8	2.2	4.8
		World	3.7	3.1	-0.6	2.9
9 May 2009	Economist Poll [6]	United States			-2.9	1.4
		United Kingdom			-3.7	0.3
		France			-2.9	0.3
		Germany			-5.2	0.3
		Japan			-6.4	0.6
3 October 2009	International Monetary Fund [7]	United States	2.0	0.8	-2.7	1.5
		United Kingdom	3.0	0.7	-4.4	0.9
		France	2.1	0.3	-2.4	0.9
		Germany	2.5	1.3	-5.3	-0.3
		Japan	2.4	-0.7	-5.4	1.7'
		China	13	9	8.5	9.0
		World	3.8	3.1	-1.1	3.1
November 2009	OECD Economic Outlook [8]	United States	2.1	0.4	-2.5	2.5	2.8
		United Kingdom	2.6	0.6	-4.7	1.2	2.2
		France	2.3	0.3	-2.3	1.4	1.7
		Germany	2.6	1.0	-4.9	1.4	1.9
		Japan	2.3	-0.7	-5.3	1.8	2.0