Recession of 2009/Tutorials: Difference between revisions

From Citizendium
Jump to navigation Jump to search
imported>Nick Gardner
imported>Nick Gardner
No edit summary
Line 1: Line 1:
<noinclude>{{Subpages}}</noinclude>
<noinclude>{{Subpages}}</noinclude>
==Selected economic statistics==


===Growth rates===


GDP at constant market prices<br>
% change on previous period (except last 3 columns)
::{|class="wikitable"
!
! 2006
! 2007
! 2008
! 2009
!Q1 07
!Q2 07
!Q3 07
!Q4 07
!Q1 08
!Q2 08
!Q3 08
!Q4 08
!Q1 09
!Q2 09
!Q3 09
!Q4 09
|-
|United States
| 2.8
| 2.0
| 1.1
|
| 0.0
| 1.2
| 1.6
| 0.0
| 0.2
| 0.7
| -0.1
| -1.4
| -1.6
| -0.3
| 0.9
|
|
|-
|Japan
| 2.0
| 2.4
| -0.6
|
| 1.0
| -0.3
| 0.4
| 1.0
| 0.3
| -1.2
| -0.4
| -3.2
| -3.3
|  0.6
|  1.2
|
|-
|Canada
| 3.1
| 2.7
| 0.5
|
| 1.0
| 1.0
| 0.6
| 0.2
| -0.2
| 0.1
| 0.2
| 0.8
| -1.4
| -0.6
| 0.1
|
|-
|United Kingdom
| 2.8
| 3.0
| 0.7
|
| 0.8
| 0.8
| 0.6
| 0.9
| 0.3
| 0.0
| -0.7
| -1.6
| -2.4
| -0.6
| -0.2
|  0.1
|-
|Germany
| 3.0
| 2.5
| 1.3
|
| 0.4
| 0.4
| 0.6
| 0.3
| 1.5
| -0.5
| -0.5
| -2.1
| -3.8
|  0.3
|  0.7
|
|
|-
|France
| 2.2
| 2.2
| 0.8
|
| 0.6
| 0.5
| 0.7
| 0.4
| 0.4
| -0.3
| 0.1
| -1.1
| -1.2
|  0.3
|  0.3
|
|
|-
|Italy
| 2.0
| 1.6
| -1.0
|
| 0.2
| 0.1
| 0.2
| -0.3
| 0.3
| -0.6
| -0.7
| -2.1
| -2.4
| -0.5
| 0.8
|
|}
Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators
===Unemployment rates===
:(ILO definition, seasonally adjusted)
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
!align="center"|
!align="center"| 2007 IV
!align="center"| 2008 I
!align="center"| 2008 II
!align="center"| 2008 III
!align="center"| 2008 IV
!align="center"| 2009 I
!align="center"| 2009 II
|-
|align="center"| United States
|align="center"| 4.8
|align="center"| 4.9
|align="center"| 5.4
|align="center"| 6.0
|align="center"| 6.9
|align="center"| 8.1
|align="center"| 8.2
|-
|align="center"| United Kingdom
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"| 5.4
|align="center"| 5.8
|align="center"| 6.3
|align="center"| 7.1
|align="center"| 7.7*
|-
|align="center"|Japan
|align="center"| 3.8
|align="center"| 3.9
|align="center"| 4.0
|align="center"| 4.1
|align="center"| 4.0
|align="center"| 4.5
|align="center"| 5.2
|-
|align="center"|Germany
|align="center"| 8.0
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"| 7.4
|align="center"| 7.2
|align="center"| 7.1
|align="center"| 7.7
|align="center"| 7.6
|-
|align="center"|France
|align="center"| 7.8
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"| 7.7
|align="center"| 7.8
|align="center"| 8.3
|align="center"| 8.8
|align="center"| 9.4
|}
::::::::::::::::::::::::                          * May
: (Source: OECD)[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/58/43687940.pdf]
===[[Fiscal stimulus]] packages===
: ( % of GDP)
:::::::::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"| 2008
!align="center"| 2009
!align="center"| 2010
!align="center"| Total
|-
|align="center"|United States
|align="center"|1.1
|align="center"|2.0
|align="center"|1.8
|align="center"|4.8
|-
|align="center"|United Kingdom
|align="center"|0.2
|align="center"|1.4
|align="center"|-0.1
|align="center"|1.5
|-
|align="center"|Germany
|align="center"|0.0
|align="center"|1.5
|align="center"|2.0
|align="center"|3.4
|-
|align="center"|France
|align="center"|0.0
|align="center"|0.7
|align="center"|0.7
|align="center"|1.3
|-
|align="center"|Japan
|align="center"|0.4
|align="center"|1.4
|align="center"|0.4
|align="center"|2.2
|-
|align="center"|Canada
|align="center"|0.0
|align="center"|1.5
|align="center"|1.3
|align="center"|2.7
|}
::(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/020109.pdf])
===Public debt===
:([[National debt]] % of GDP )
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"| Average <ref> average of advanced G20 countries</ref>
|-
|2007
|align="center"|188
|align="center"|104
|align="center"|64
|align="center"|63
|align="center"|62
|align="center"|44
|align="center"|78
|-
|2009
|align="center"|217
|align="center"|117
|align="center"|77
|align="center"|80
|align="center"|89
|align="center"|69
|align="center"|101
|-
|2010
|align="center"|219
|align="center"|116
|align="center"|78
|align="center"|79
|align="center"|85
|align="center"|69
|align="center"|99
|-
|2014
|align="center"|246
|align="center"|129
|align="center"|96
|align="center"|89
|align="center"|108
|align="center"|98
|align="center"|118
|}
:::::<references/>
::(Source: IMF Staff Position Note November 2009 [https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0925.pdf])
===Total debt===
(% of GDP 2008)
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
!Government
|align="center"|52
|align="center"|188
|align="center"|73
|align="center"|101
|align="center"|60
|align="center"|69
|-
!Financial institutions
|align="center"|202
|align="center"|108
|align="center"|81
|align="center"|77
|align="center"|56
|align="center"|76
|-
!Non-financial businesses
|align="center"|114
|align="center"|96
|align="center"|110
|align="center"|81
|align="center"|78
|align="center"|66
|-
!Households
|align="center"|101
|align="center"|67
|align="center"|44
|align="center"|40
|align="center"|56
|align="center"|47
|-
!Total
|align="center"|469
|align="center"|459
|align="center"|308
|align="center"|298
|align="center"|290
|align="center"|274
|-
! % growth 2000-08
|align="center"|10.2
|align="center"|0.3
|align="center"|7.7
|align="center"|6.3
|align="center"|8.1
|align="center"|2.5
|}
:(Source: ''Debt and Deleverageing, the Global Credit Bubble and its Consequences'', McKinsey, 2010)
==Leading Indicators==
Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted, per cent
<br> (long-term average = 100)<br>
Growth cycle phases of the CLI are defined as follows: expansion (increase above 100), downturn (decrease above 100), slowdown (decrease below100), recovery (increase below 100).
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"| &nbsp;&nbsp;China&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| &nbsp;&nbsp;Russia&nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
| January 2009
|align="center"|91.2
|align="center"|96.2
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|90.7
|align="center"|91.3
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|91.7
|align="center"|88.2
|-
| February 2009
|align="center"|90.2
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|96.7
|align="center"|90.3
|align="center"|90.9
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|92.6
|align="center"|87.0
|-
| March 2009
|align="center"|89.4
|align="center"|97.3
|align="center"|97.8
|align="center"|90.2
|align="center"|90.7
|align="center"|96.7
|align="center"|93.4
|align="center"|86.2
|-
| April 2009
|align="center"|88.7
|align="center"|98.8
|align="center"|99.0
|align="center"|91.0
|align="center"|91.2
|align="center"|97.5
|align="center"|94.6
|align="center"|86.2
|-
| May 2009
|align="center"|89.5
|align="center"|101.1
|align="center"|100.3
|align="center"|93.8
|align="center"|92.7
|align="center"|98.3
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|88.2
|-
| June 2009
|align="center"|94.8
|align="center"|101.4
|align="center"|100.7
|align="center"|95.6
|align="center"|94.9
|align="center"|98.9
|align="center"|97.9
|align="center"|90.9
|-
| July 2009
|align="center"|96.2
|align="center"|102.9
|align="center"|102.0
|align="center"|97.8
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|100.3
|align="center"|99.8
|align="center"|92.6
|-
| August 2009
|align="center"|97.5
|align="center"|104.3
|align="center"|103.3
|align="center"|99.9
|align="center"|97.8
|align="center"|102.2
|align="center"|101.3
|align="center"|94.2
|-
| September 2009
|align="center"|98.8
|align="center"|105.6
|align="center"|104.6
|align="center"|101.9
|align="center"|99.2
|align="center"|103.9
|align="center"|103.2
|align="center"|95.8
|}
Source: OECD Composite ''leading indicators'' [http://www.oecd.org/document/3/0,3343,en_2649_34249_42547075_1_1_1_1,00.html]


==Forecasts ==
==Forecasts ==
Line 513: Line 18:
! 2010
! 2010
! 2011
! 2011
|-
| 30 March 2009
|World Bank [http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGEP2009/Resources/5530448-1238466339289/GEP-Update-March30.pdf]
|United States
|2.0
|''1.1''
|''-2.4''
|''2.0''
|-
|
|
|Japan
|2.1
|''-0.7''
|''-5.3''
|''1.3''
|-
|
|
|Euro area
|2.6
|''0.7''
|''-2.7''
|''0.9''
|-
|
|
|China
|12
|''9.0''
|''6.5''
|''7.3''
|-
|
|
|Developing <ref name=dev/>
|6.1
|''5.8''
|''2.2''
|''4.8''
|-
|
|
| World
|3.7
|''3.1''
|''-0.6''
|''2.9''
|-
| 9 May 2009
| ''Economist''  Poll [http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13611211]
| United States
|
|
| -''2.9''
| ''1.4''
|-
|
|
| United Kingdom
|
|
| ''-3.7''
| ''0.3''
|-
|
|
| France
|
|
| ''-2.9''
| ''0.3''
|-
|
|
| Germany
|
|
| ''-5.2''
| ''0.3''
|-
|
|
| Japan
|
|
| ''-6.4''
| ''0.6''
|-
|-


Revision as of 02:39, 28 January 2010

This article is developing and not approved.
 Main Article
 Discussion
Related Articles  [?]
Bibliography  [?]
External Links  [?]
Citable Version  [?]
Timelines [?]
Tutorials [?]
Addendum [?]
 
https://en.citizendium.org/wiki/index.php?title=Recession_of_2009/Tutorials&printable=yes
Tutorials relating to the topic of Recession of 2009.


Forecasts

Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product
(forecasts are shown in italics)
Date Source Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3 October 2009 International Monetary Fund [1] United States 2.0 0.8 -2.7 1.5
United Kingdom 3.0 0.7 -4.4 0.9
France 2.1 0.3 -2.4 0.9
Germany 2.5 1.3 -5.3 -0.3
Japan 2.4 -0.7 -5.4 1.7'
China 13 9 8.5 9.0
World 3.8 3.1 -1.1 3.1
November 2009 OECD Economic Outlook [2] United States 2.1 0.4 -2.5 2.5 2.8
United Kingdom 2.6 0.6 -4.7 1.2 2.2
France 2.3 0.3 -2.3 1.4 1.7
Germany 2.6 1.0 -4.9 1.4 1.9
Japan 2.3 -0.7 -5.3 1.8 2.0
Retrieved from "https://citizendium.org/wiki/index.php?title=Recession_of_2009/Tutorials&oldid=564023"