Recession of 2009/Addendum: Difference between revisions

From Citizendium
Jump to navigation Jump to search
imported>Nick Gardner
imported>Nick Gardner
 
(107 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
{{subpages}}
==Selected economic statistics==


===Growth rates===


==National growth rates in OECD countries==
:GDP at constant market prices<br>
 
::% change on previous period  
GDP at constant market prices<br>
% change on previous period


::{|class="wikitable"
::{|class="wikitable"
!
!colspan = "4"|
!colspan = "4"|2007
!colspan = "4"|2008
!colspan = "4"|2009
!colspan = "4"|2010
!colspan = "4"|2011
|-
!
!
! 2006
! 2006
! 2007
! 2007
! 2008
! 2008
!
! 2009
!Q1 07
!Q1  
!Q2 07
!Q2  
!Q3 07
!Q3  
!Q4 04
!Q4  
!
!Q1
!Q1 08
!Q2
!Q2 08
!Q3
!Q3 08
!Q4
!Q4 08
!Q1  
!
!Q2  
!Q1 09
!Q3  
!Q2 09
!Q4  
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1  
!Q2  
!Q3
!Q4 
|-
|-
|United States
|United States
| 2.8
| 2.8
| 2.0
| 2.0
| 1.1
| 0.4
|
| -2.4
| 0.0
| 0.0
| 1.2
| 1.2
| 1.6
| 1.6
| 0.0
| 0.0
|
| 0.2
| 0.2
| 0.7
| 0.7
| -0.1
| -0.1
| -1.4
| -1.4
|
| -1.2
| -1.6
| -0.2
| -0.3
| 0.4
| 1.2
| 0.9
| 0.9
| 0.6
| 0.6
| 0.1
| 0.3
| 0.5
| 0.7
|-
|-
|Japan
|Japan
Line 48: Line 71:
| 2.4
| 2.4
| -0.6
| -0.6
|
| -5.3
| 1.0
| 1.0
| -0.3
| -0.3
| 0.4
| 0.4
| 1.0
| 1.0
|
| 0.3
| 0.3
| -1.2
| -1.2
| -0.4
| -0.4
| -3.2
| -3.2
|
| -4.2
| -3.3
|  1.7
| 0.9
|  0.1
| 1.1
| 1.2
| 1.3
| 0.6
| -0.6
| -1.8
| -0.3
| 1.7
| -0.2
|-
|-
|Canada
|Canada
Line 66: Line 97:
| 2.7
| 2.7
| 0.5
| 0.5
|
| -2.6
| 1.0
| 1.0
| 1.0
| 1.0
| 0.6
| 0.6
| 0.2
| 0.2
|
| -0.2
| -0.2
| 0.1
| 0.1
| 0.2
| 0.2
| 0.8
| 0.8
|
| -1.4
| -1.4
| -0.6
| 0.1
| 1.2
| 1.5
| 0.6
| 0.6
| 0.8
| 0.9
| -0.2
| 1.0
| 0.4
|-
|-
|United Kingdom
|United Kingdom
Line 83: Line 123:
| 3.0
| 3.0
| 0.7
| 0.7
|
| -4.8
| 0.8
| 0.8
| 0.8
| 0.8
| 0.6
| 0.6
| 0.9
| 0.9
|
| 0.3
| 0.3
| 0.0
| 0.0
| -0.7
| -0.7
| -1.6
| -1.6
|
| -2.3
| -2.4
| -0.7
| -0.8
| -0.3
|  0.4
|  0.4
|  1.1
|  0.7
| -0.5
|  0.2
| -0.1 
|  0.6
| -0.3
|-
|-
|Germany
|Germany
Line 101: Line 149:
| 2.5
| 2.5
| 1.3
| 1.3
|
| -5.0
| 0.4
| 0.4
| 0.4
| 0.4
| 0.6
| 0.6
| 0.3
| 0.3
|
| 1.5
| 1.5
| -0.5
| -0.5
| -0.5
| -0.5
| -2.1
| -2.1
|
| -3.4
| -3.8
|  0.5
| 0.7
|  0.3
|  0.3
|  0.6
|  1.9
|  0.8
|  0.5
| 1.3
| 0.3
| 0.6
| -0.2
|-
|-
|France
|France
Line 119: Line 175:
| 2.2
| 2.2
| 0.8
| 0.8
|
| -2.3
| 0.6
| 0.6
| 0.5
| 0.5
| 0.7
| 0.7
| 0.4
| 0.4
|
| 0.4
| 0.4
| -0.3
| -0.3
| 0.1
| 0.1
| -1.1
| -1.1
|
| -1.5
| -1.2
| 0.1
|  0.3
|  0.3
|  0.6
|  0.2
|  0.7
|  0.4
|  0.4
| 0.9
| 0.0
| 0.3
| 0.2
|-
|-
|Italy
|Italy
Line 137: Line 201:
| 1.6
| 1.6
| -1.0
| -1.0
|
| -5.0
| 0.2
| 0.2
| 0.1
| 0.1
| 0.2
| 0.2
| -0.3
| -0.3
|
| 0.3
| 0.3
| -0.6
| -0.6
| -0.7
| -0.7
| -2.1
| -2.1
|
| -2.9
| -2.4
| -0.3
|   
| 0.4
| -0.1
|  0.4
|  0.5
|  0.2
|  0.2
|  0.1
|  0.3
| -0.2
| -0.7
|}
|}
::(Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators)


Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators - and national statistics for Q1 09.
===Consumer prices===
: percentage increase on the same period of the previous year


== Recent economic developments==
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"


===2009, 1st quarter===
! colspan = "3"|
! colspan = "4"| 2009
|-
!
! 2008
! 2009
! &nbsp;Mar&nbsp;
! &nbsp;Jun&nbsp;
! &nbsp;Sep&nbsp;
! &nbsp;Dec&nbsp;
|-
! United States
| align = "center"| 3.8
| align = "center"|-0.4
| align = "center"|-0.4
| align = "center"|-1.4
| align = "center"|-1.3
| align = "center"|2.7
|-
! United Kingdom
| align = "center"| 3.6
| align = "center"| 2.2
| align = "center"| 2.9
| align = "center"| 1.8
| align = "center"| 1.1
| align = "center"| 2.8
|-
! France
| align = "center"| 2.8
| align = "center"| 0.1
| align = "center"| 0.3
| align = "center"| -0.5
| align = "center"| -0.4
| align = "center"| 0.9
|-
! Germany
| align = "center"| 2.6
| align = "center"| 0.4
| align = "center"| 0.5
| align = "center"| 0.1
| align = "center"| -0.3
| align = "center"| 0.9
|-
! Italy
| align = "center"| 3.3
| align = "center"| 0.8
| align = "center"| 1.2
| align = "center"| 0.5
| align = "center"| 0.2
| align = "center"| 1.3
|-
! Japan
| align = "center"| 1.4
| align = "center"| -1.4
| align = "center"| -0.3
| align = "center"| -1.8
| align = "center"| -2.2
| align = "center"| -1.3
|-
! G7 countries
| align = "center"| 3.2
| align = "center"| -0.1
| align = "center"| -0.1
| align = "center"| -0.9
| align = "center"| -1.0
| align = "center"|  1.8
|}


====World====
: (Source OECD[http://www.oecd.org/document/57/0,3343,en_2649_33715_44523833_1_1_1_1,00.html] )
: '''World trade falls''' - the value of trade by the G7 countries is 23% below that of Q1 2008.
<small>
:'''Protection grows''' World Bank reports 47 trade restrictions by 17 G20 countries [http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13355727]
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
:''' Developing countries lose exports''' [http://siteresources.worldbank.org/NEWS/Resources/swimmingagainstthetide-march2009.pdf].
</small>
:'''IMF lending resources to increase'''  - US proposes tripling them [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be91f43c-0e63-11de-b099-0000779fd2ac.html]
===Unemployment rates===
: G20 Finance Ministers pledge further action [http://www.g20.org/Documents/2009_communique_horsham_uk.pdf]
: OECD harmonised rates
:: %  seasonally adjusted)


====The United States====
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
:'''Rising unemployment''' - 7.6% in January, 8.1% February.
:'''Record  budget deficit''' -  $1.2 trillion 2009 deficit forecast by the Congressional Budget Office [http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9957/01-07-Outlook.pdf]. (Government spending expected to rise to 23% of GDP [http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5536320.ece])
:'''Major fiscal stimulus''' - proposed by President-elect Obama in his speech of 8 January [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/58ee3966-dd9d-11dd-930e-000077b07658.html][http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7874407.stm]
::Congress approves stimulus package - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act(H.R. 1) - a $839 billion stimulus package [http://www.recovery.gov/]
:'''Financial Stability Plan''' - Government launches a plan intended to restore confidence in the financial system (including mandatory stress tests for major banks)  and to provide financial assistance households and businesses[http://www.financialstability.gov/docs/fact-sheet.pdf]
:'''Fears of Trade War''' –  America First Steel Act, Homeland Security Comm. approves bill requiring federal agencies to use U.S. steel for public works projects, (HR 5935) [http://www.bna.com/current/itr/topl.htm] [http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/industrials/article5587443.ece]
:'''Money supply increase''' Federal Reserve to increase the size of its balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. [http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090318a.htm]
:'''Washington's digression''' Outrage over AIG bonuses threatens to derail Obama's rescue plans [http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5934395.ece]
: '''Housing market bottoms out?'''. House sales rise by about 5% in February.
: '''Public Private Partnership Investment Program ''' announced [http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/tg65.htm] to purchase $1 trillion worth of toxic assets from banks.
 
 
====Europe excluding UK====
:'''Industrial production falls''' - Eurozone index drops by 3.5% in January.
:'''ECB Discount  rate cut''' from 2.4% to  2% [http://www.ecb.int/stats/monetary/rates/html/index.en.html#data]
:'''French industrial production plunges''' at an annual rate of 13% in January.
:'''German output projected to fall by 2.5 percent in 2009'''[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/CAR012209A.htm].
:'''Eastern Europe's economic crisis''' [http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-02-23-voa48.cfm]
:'''IMF's Hungary programme'''[http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr0936.htm]
 
====United Kingdom====
:'''Industrial production falls''' - output decreased by 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2009 compared with the previous quarter and fell 12.1 per cent against the first quarter of 2008[http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=198].
:'''Fiscal stimulus announced'''- the main elements being a temporary reduction of the rate of value-added tax  from 17.5% to 15%,  a bringing forward of £3 billion of capital investment, and a range of minor tax reductions. The resulting discretionary fiscal easing (1.4% of GDP in 2009) together with the much larger effects of the ''automatic stabilisers'' was expected to raise the fiscal deficit to 9% of GDP in 2009 and even higher in 2010.[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/17/4/42440943.pdf]. Plans that were put forward for the halving of the deficit within 4 years included an increase to 45% of income tax rates for earners of over £150,000 a year
 
:'''Quantitative easing '''[http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/ck_letter_boe290109.pdf] and '''Asset protection '''[http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/press_07_09.htm][http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/quarterlybulletin/mo09feb.pdf]
:'''Discount  rate cut''' - from 2% to 1.0% [http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2009/001.htm].
:'''IMF endorses policy''' IMF  Deputy Managing Director says "There is no unique weakness in the UK economy, and we believe the measures taken ...will strengthen the economy over the medium term "[http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5627450.ece].
 
====Asia====
: '''China's growth rate falls''' [http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:22092584~menuPK:51340323~pagePK:64257043~piPK:437376~theSitePK:4607,00.html]
: '''Japan's exports halved''' - exports  in January 2009 were  56% less than in January 2008 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7931806.stm].
:'''Japan's industrial production falls''' - in January to 10.0% lower than in  the previous month and 30.8% below  that of January 2008 <ref>http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/tyo/iip/index.html ''Indices of Industrial Production'', Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry, Tokio, February 27, 2009]</ref>.
: '''Japan's IMF loan''' - of $100bn[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/NEW021309A.htm].
 
===2009, 2nd quarter===
 
====World====
:'''Signs of recovery'''- OECD leading indicators  show moves toward long-term trend for the economies of nearly all industrialised countries[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/33/42/42946062.pdf], and G8  Finance Ministers say "there are signs of stabilization in our economies, including a recovery of stock markets, a decline in interest rate spreads, improved business and consumer confidence, but the situation remains uncertain and significant risks remain to economic and financial stability."[http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSLD28717620090613]
:'''Record public debt'''- the IMF expects the public debt of the 10 leading economies to rise from 78% of GDP on 2007 to 114% in 2010, or $50,000 per person.
 
====United States====
 
:'''Output fall moderates?''' Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve District Banks indicate that economic conditions remained weak or deteriorated further during the period from mid-April through May. However, five of the Districts noted that the downward trend is showing signs of moderating. Further, contacts from several Districts said that their expectations have improved, though they do not see a substantial increase in economic activity through the end of the year
:'''Banks fail stress tests'''  - of the 19 banks  tested, it was found  that ten of them need to raise a total of $74.6bn.  Any who fail to raise their quota will come under increased government control.
:'''10 banks repay Treasury loans''' - received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
:'''Credit crunch eases''' The LIBOR three-month lending rates for the dollar fell below 1 per cent for the first time. The previous all-time low was 1 per cent in June 2003.
:'''Mark to market rule eased''' for inactive markets to what an asset could fetch in an "orderly" transaction (not including distressed transactions or fire-sales)[http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0235590020090402]
 
====Europe except UK====
:'''ECB discount rate cut to 1 percent''' - the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem  be decreased by 25 basis points to 1.00%, from 13/05/09[http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2009/html/pr090507.en.html].
:'''ECB quantitative easing starts''' - with plans to buy €60bn worth of bonds. [http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2009/html/is090507.en.html]
:'''Ireland's supplementary budget''' - a number of tax increases and public expenditure cuts designed to reduce the deficit to 10.75 per cent of GDP for 2009 [http://www.budget.gov.ie/2009SupApril09/FinancialStatement.html].
 
====United Kingdom====
:'''"Recession is over!"''' - according to Martin Weale of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research[http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2ee96e32-5620-11de-ab7e-00144feabdc0.html]
:'''Purchasing managers are optimistic''' PMI index reaches 50.9 - 51.7 for services (50 means stable)[http://www.cips.org/aboutcips/news/details.aspx?id=195].
:'''More quantitative easing''': Bank of England increases its Asset Purchase Programme by £50 bn to £125 bn [http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2009/037.htm]
: '''Budget''' - broadly in line with pre-budget proposals (but with top tax rate raised to 50%)
: '''Treasury forecasts 2010 upturn and debt of 75% of GDP'''- puts gdp growth at -3½ to -3¾ per cent for 2009 (in line with independent forecasts) and 1 to 1½ per cent for 2010 (at the upper end of the range of independent forecasts) and forecasts an increase in national debt to about 75 percent of gdp.
: '''S&P outlook revised to negative but 'AAA/A-1+' rating remains '''[http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.article/4,5,5,1,1204846854464.html] - assuming national debt to reach 100% of GDP by 2013 and bank rescues to cost £145bn (note lower IFS estimates [http://www.ifs.org.uk/comms/comm107.pdf]).
:'''House prices rise''' - twice in 3 months [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05fa9898-4c1b-11de-a6c5-00144feabdc0,s01=1.html]
 
====Asia====
 
===2009 3rd quarter===
====United Kingdom====
'''Quantitative easing extended'''[http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2009/063.htm] -  by £50 billion to £175 billion.
 
==Leading Indicators==
Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted, per cent
<br> (long-term average = 100)<br>
Growth cycle phases of the CLI are defined as follows: expansion (increase above 100), downturn (decrease above 100), slowdown (decrease below100), recovery (increase below 100).
 
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!colspan = "3"|
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!colspan = "4"|2009
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"| &nbsp;&nbsp;China&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| &nbsp;&nbsp;Russia&nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
| January 2009
|align="center"|91.2
|align="center"|96.2
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|90.7
|align="center"|91.3
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"|91.7
|align="center"|88.2
|-
|-
| February 2009
!align="center"|
|align="center"|90.2
!align="center"| 2007
|align="center"|96.3
!align="center"| 2008
|align="center"|96.7
!align="center"| 2009
|align="center"|90.3
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q1&nbsp;
|align="center"|90.9
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q2&nbsp;
|align="center"|96.3
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q3&nbsp;
|align="center"|92.6
!align="center"| &nbsp; Q4&nbsp;
|align="center"|87.0
|-
|-
| March 2009
|align="center"| United States
|align="center"|89.4
|align="center"| 4.6
|align="center"|97.3
|align="center"| 5.8
|align="center"|97.8
|align="center"| 9.3
|align="center"|90.2
|align="center"| 8.2
|align="center"|90.7
|align="center"| 9.3
|align="center"|96.7
|align="center"| 9.7
|align="center"|93.4
|align="center"| 10.0
|align="center"|86.2
|-
|-
| April 2009
|align="center"| United Kingdom
|align="center"|88.7
|align="center"| 5.3
|align="center"|98.8
|align="center"| 5.5
|align="center"|99.0
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"|91.0
|align="center"| 7.1
|align="center"|91.2
|align="center"| 7.7
|align="center"|97.5
|align="center"| 7.8
|align="center"|94.6
|align="center"| 7.7
|align="center"|86.2
|-
|-
| May 2009
|align="center"|Japan
|align="center"|89.5
|align="center"| 3.9
|align="center"|101.1
|align="center"| 4.0
|align="center"|100.3
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"|93.8
|align="center"| 4.5
|align="center"|92.7
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"|98.3
|align="center"| 5.1
|align="center"|96.3
|align="center"| 5.2
|align="center"|88.2
|-
|-
| June 2009
|align="center"|Germany
|align="center"|95.5
|align="center"| 8.4
|align="center"|103.3
|align="center"| 7.3
|align="center"|101.6
|align="center"| 7.5
|align="center"|95.5
|align="center"| 7.3
|align="center"|93.9
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"|99.4
|align="center"| 7.6
|align="center"|97.1
|align="center"| 7.5
|align="center"|89.4
|-
|-
| Change
|align="center"|France
|align="center"|↑
|align="center"| 8.3
|align="center"|↑
|align="center"| 7.9
|align="center"|↑
|align="center"| 9.4
|align="center"|↑
|align="center"| 8.9
|align="center"|↑
|align="center"| 9.3
|align="center"|↑
|align="center"| 9.5
|align="center"|↑
|align="center"| 10.0
|align="center"|↑
|}
|}


:: (Source: OECD)[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/20/21/44746304.pdf]
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>


Source: OECD Composite ''leading indicators'' [http://www.oecd.org/document/3/0,3343,en_2649_34249_42547075_1_1_1_1,00.html]
===Commodity prices===


==Forecasts ==
IMF Index of Primary Commodity Prices,
(2005=100, in terms of US dollars)


:::'''Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product'''
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
| colspan = "4" align = "center"|2007
| colspan = "4" align = "center"|2008
| colspan = "4" align = "center"|2009
|-
| Q1
| Q2
| Q3
| Q4
| Q1
| Q2
| Q3
| Q4
| Q1
| Q2
| Q3
| Q4
|-
| 118
| 130
| 137
| 154
| 172
| 203
| 197
| 117
| 99
| 114
| 126
| 136
|}


:::(forecasts are shown in ''italics'')
:::(Source: IMF [http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/table1a.pdf])


:::{|class="wikitable"
===The oil price===
!Date
The price of crude oil on the New York Stock Exchange ($/barrel[http://www.nyse.tv/crude-oil-price-history.htm])
!Source
:::::::{|class = "wikitable"
!Country
!colspan = "2"|2007
! 2007
!colspan = "2"|2008
! 2008
!colspan = "2"| 2009
! 2009
!colspan = "2"| 2010
! 2010
! 2011
|-
|-
| 30 March 2009
| January
|World Bank [http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGEP2009/Resources/5530448-1238466339289/GEP-Update-March30.pdf]
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
|United States
| January
|2.0
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
|''1.1''
| January
|''-2.4''
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
|''2.0''
| January
| &nbsp;&nbsp;June&nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
|-
|
|align="center"| 56
|
|align="center"| 65
|Japan
|align="center"| 98
|2.1
|align="center"| 139
|''-0.7''
|align="center"| 46
|''-5.3''
|align="center"| 68
|''1.3''
|align="center"| 83
|align="center"| 72
|}
 
===World trade===
: OECD  trade in goods and services
:: % value change on previous quarter (priced in US$).
 
:::::::{|class="wikitable"
!
!colspan = "4"|2008
!colspan = "4"|2009
!colspan = "4"|2010
|-
|-
|
!
|
!Q1
|Euro area
!Q2
|2.6
!Q3
|''0.7''
!Q4
|''-2.7''
!Q1
|''0.9''
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
|-
|-
!Exports
| 5.6
| 5.6
| -3.0
| -18.4
| -12.7
| 1.8
| 7.5
| 7.6
| 0.6
|
|
|
|China
|12
|''9.0''
|''6.5''
|''7.3''
|-
|
|
|
|
|Developing <ref name=dev/>
|6.1
|''5.8''
|''2.2''
|''4.8''
|-
|-
!Imports
|6.2
|5.2
| -2.0
| -18.5
| -14.3
| -0.5
| 8.1
| 6.2
| 2.5
|
|
|
|
| World
|3.7
|''3.1''
|''-0.6''
|''2.9''
|-
| 31 March 2009
| OECD Economic Outlook [http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/18/1/42443150.pdf]
| United States
|
|
|1.1
|}
| -''4.0''
 
| ''0''
::(Source: OECD economic indicators[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/10/47/44479849.pdf])
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
 
==Policy Actions==
 
===Central bank measures===
 
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
! Federal Reserve Bank
! European Central Bank
! &nbsp;&nbsp;Bank of Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;
! &nbsp;&nbsp;Bank of England&nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
|-
|
! Lowering policy rates
|
to very low levels
| United Kingdom
|Align = "center"|X
|
|Align = "center"|De facto
|0.7
|Align = "center"|X
| ''-3.7''
|Align = "center"|X
| ''-0.2''
|-
|-
|
! Increasing liquidity provision
|
to financial institutions
| France
|Align = "center"|X
|
|Align = "center"|X
| 0.7
|Align = "center"|X
| ''-3.3''
|Align = "center"|X
| ''-0.1''
|-
|-
|
! Intervening directly in wider
|
segments of the financial market
| Germany
|Align = "center"|X
|
|Align = "center"|X
| 1.0
|Align = "center"|X
| ''-5.3''
|Align = "center"|X
| ''0.2''
|-
|-
|
! Purchasing long-term
|
government bonds
| Japan
|Align = "center"|X
|
|Align = "center"|
| -0.6
|Align = "center"|X
| ''-6.6''
|Align = "center"|X
| ''-0.5''
|-
|-
!Supporting specific
institutions
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|
|Align = "center"|X
|Align = "center"|X
|}


| 9 May 2009
:Source: OECD Economics Working Papper No 753 February 2010[http://www.oecdilibrary.org/docserver/download/fulltext/5kml6xm7qgs6.pdf?expires=1271935601&id=0000&accname=freeContent&checksum=4409F41DDF3E1725FB09A73F274F2806]
| ''Economist''  Poll [http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13611211]
<small>
| United States
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
|
</small>
|
===[[Fiscal stimulus]] packages===
| -''2.9''
:  % of GDP
| ''1.4''
 
:::::::::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"| 2008
!align="center"| 2009
!align="center"| 2010
!align="center"| Total
|-
|align="center"|United States
|align="center"|1.1
|align="center"|2.0
|align="center"|1.8
|align="center"|4.8
|-
|align="center"|United Kingdom
|align="center"|0.2
|align="center"|1.4
|align="center"|-0.1
|align="center"|1.5
|-
|align="center"|Germany
|align="center"|0.0
|align="center"|1.5
|align="center"|2.0
|align="center"|3.4
|-
|align="center"|France
|align="center"|0.0
|align="center"|0.7
|align="center"|0.7
|align="center"|1.3
|-
|align="center"|Japan
|align="center"|0.4
|align="center"|1.4
|align="center"|0.4
|align="center"|2.2
|-
|align="center"|Canada
|align="center"|0.0
|align="center"|1.5
|align="center"|1.3
|align="center"|2.7
|-
|-
|
|align="center"|China
|
|align="center"|0.4
| United Kingdom
|align="center"|2.0
|
|align="center"|2.0
|
|align="center"|4.4
| ''-3.7''
|}
| ''0.3''
 
::(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/020109.pdf])
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
==Debt==
 
===Public debt estimates===
:([[National debt]]
:: % of GDP )
 
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"| Average <ref> average of advanced G20 countries</ref>
|-
|-
|
|2007
|
|align="center"|188
| France
|align="center"|104
|
|align="center"|64
|
|align="center"|63
| ''-2.9''
|align="center"|62
| ''0.3''
|align="center"|44
|align="center"|78
|-
|-
|
|2009
|
|align="center"|217
| Germany
|align="center"|117
|
|align="center"|77
|
|align="center"|80
| ''-5.2''
|align="center"|89
| ''0.3''
|align="center"|69
|align="center"|101
|-
|-
|
|2010
|
|align="center"|219
| Japan
|align="center"|116
|
|align="center"|78
|
|align="center"|79
| ''-6.4''
|align="center"|85
| ''0.6''
|align="center"|69
|align="center"|99
|-
|-
| 8 July 2009
|2014
| International Monetary Fund [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/index.htm]
|align="center"|246
| United States
|align="center"|129
|2.0
|align="center"|96
|0.8
|align="center"|89
|''-3.8''
|align="center"|108
|''0.6''
|align="center"|98
|align="center"|118
|}
 
:::::<references/>
 
::(Source: IMF Staff Position Note November 2009 [https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0925.pdf])
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>
===Total debt===
 
: % of GDP 2008
 
:::{|class = "wikitable"
!
!align="center"| United Kingdom
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; France&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Italy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
!align="center"| United States
!align="center"|&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany &nbsp;&nbsp;
|-
|-
|
!Government
|
|align="center"|52
| United Kingdom
|align="center"|188
|3.0
|align="center"|73
|0.7
|align="center"|101
|''-4.2''
|align="center"|60
|''0.2''
|align="center"|69
|-
|-
|
!Financial institutions
|
|align="center"|202
| France
|align="center"|108
| 2.1
|align="center"|81
| 0.3
|align="center"|77
| ''-3.0''
|align="center"|56
| ''0.9''
|align="center"|76
|-
|-
|
!Non-financial businesses
|
|align="center"|114
| Germany
|align="center"|96
| 2.5
|align="center"|110
| 1.3
|align="center"|81
| ''-6.2''
|align="center"|78
| ''-0.6''
|align="center"|66
|-
|-
|
!Households
|
|align="center"|101
| Japan
|align="center"|67
| 2.4
|align="center"|44
| -0.7
|align="center"|40
| ''-6.0''
|align="center"|56
| ''1.7'
|align="center"|47
|-
|-
|
!Total
|
|align="center"|469
| China
|align="center"|459
| 13
|align="center"|308
| 9
|align="center"|298
| ''7.5''
|align="center"|290
| ''8.5''
|align="center"|274
|-
|-
|
! % growth 2000-08
|
|align="center"|10.2
| World
|align="center"|0.3
| 3.8
|align="center"|7.7
| ''3.1''
|align="center"|6.3
| ''-1.4''
|align="center"|8.1
| ''2.5''
|align="center"|2.5
|}
|}
:(Source: ''Debt and Deleverageing, the Global Credit Bubble and its Consequences'', McKinsey, 2010[http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/freepass_pdfs/debt_and_deleveraging/debt_and_deleveraging_full_report.pdf])
<small>
[[Recession of 2009/Addendum#Selected economic statistics|RETURN TO THE TOP]]
</small>




<references/>
<references/>

Latest revision as of 05:11, 24 April 2012

Selected economic statistics

Growth rates

GDP at constant market prices
% change on previous period
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
United States 2.8 2.0 0.4 -2.4 0.0 1.2 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 -0.1 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7
Japan 2.0 2.4 -0.6 -5.3 1.0 -0.3 0.4 1.0 0.3 -1.2 -0.4 -3.2 -4.2 1.7 0.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.6 -0.6 -1.8 -0.3 1.7 -0.2
Canada 3.1 2.7 0.5 -2.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 -0.2 1.0 0.4
United Kingdom 2.8 3.0 0.7 -4.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 -0.7 -1.6 -2.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.7 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.3
Germany 3.0 2.5 1.3 -5.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.5 -0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -3.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.6 -0.2
France 2.2 2.2 0.8 -2.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -1.1 -1.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.2
Italy 2.0 1.6 -1.0 -5.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -2.1 -2.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.7
(Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators)

Consumer prices

percentage increase on the same period of the previous year
2009
2008 2009  Mar   Jun   Sep   Dec 
United States 3.8 -0.4 -0.4 -1.4 -1.3 2.7
United Kingdom 3.6 2.2 2.9 1.8 1.1 2.8
France 2.8 0.1 0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.9
Germany 2.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.9
Italy 3.3 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.3
Japan 1.4 -1.4 -0.3 -1.8 -2.2 -1.3
G7 countries 3.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.9 -1.0 1.8
(Source OECD[1] )

RETURN TO THE TOP

Unemployment rates

OECD harmonised rates
% seasonally adjusted)
2009
2007 2008 2009   Q1    Q2    Q3    Q4 
United States 4.6 5.8 9.3 8.2 9.3 9.7 10.0
United Kingdom 5.3 5.5 7.6 7.1 7.7 7.8 7.7
Japan 3.9 4.0 5.1 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.2
Germany 8.4 7.3 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.6 7.5
France 8.3 7.9 9.4 8.9 9.3 9.5 10.0
(Source: OECD)[2]

RETURN TO THE TOP

Commodity prices

IMF Index of Primary Commodity Prices, (2005=100, in terms of US dollars)

2007 2008 2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
118 130 137 154 172 203 197 117 99 114 126 136
(Source: IMF [3])

The oil price

The price of crude oil on the New York Stock Exchange ($/barrel[4])

2007 2008 2009 2010
January   June   January   June   January   June   January   June  
56 65 98 139 46 68 83 72

World trade

OECD trade in goods and services
% value change on previous quarter (priced in US$).
2008 2009 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Exports 5.6 5.6 -3.0 -18.4 -12.7 1.8 7.5 7.6 0.6
Imports 6.2 5.2 -2.0 -18.5 -14.3 -0.5 8.1 6.2 2.5
(Source: OECD economic indicators[5])

RETURN TO THE TOP

Policy Actions

Central bank measures

Federal Reserve Bank European Central Bank   Bank of Japan     Bank of England  
Lowering policy rates

to very low levels

X De facto X X
Increasing liquidity provision

to financial institutions

X X X X
Intervening directly in wider

segments of the financial market

X X X X
Purchasing long-term

government bonds

X X X
Supporting specific

institutions

X X X
Source: OECD Economics Working Papper No 753 February 2010[6]

RETURN TO THE TOP

Fiscal stimulus packages

% of GDP
2008 2009 2010 Total
United States 1.1 2.0 1.8 4.8
United Kingdom 0.2 1.4 -0.1 1.5
Germany 0.0 1.5 2.0 3.4
France 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.3
Japan 0.4 1.4 0.4 2.2
Canada 0.0 1.5 1.3 2.7
China 0.4 2.0 2.0 4.4
(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [7])

RETURN TO THE TOP

Debt

Public debt estimates

(National debt
% of GDP )
   Japan       Italy       France      Germany    United States United Kingdom Average [1]
2007 188 104 64 63 62 44 78
2009 217 117 77 80 89 69 101
2010 219 116 78 79 85 69 99
2014 246 129 96 89 108 98 118
  1. ↑ average of advanced G20 countries
    2. (Source: IMF Staff Position Note November 2009 [8])

    RETURN TO THE TOP

    Total debt

    % of GDP 2008
    United Kingdom    Japan       France       Italy     United States    Germany   
    Government 52 188 73 101 60 69
    Financial institutions 202 108 81 77 56 76
    Non-financial businesses 114 96 110 81 78 66
    Households 101 67 44 40 56 47
    Total 469 459 308 298 290 274
    % growth 2000-08 10.2 0.3 7.7 6.3 8.1 2.5
    (Source: Debt and Deleverageing, the Global Credit Bubble and its Consequences, McKinsey, 2010[9])

    RETURN TO THE TOP


    Retrieved from "https://citizendium.org/wiki/index.php?title=Recession_of_2009/Addendum&oldid=544005"