2008 United States presidential election

The United States will hold its 55th quadrennial presidential election on November 4, 2008. The leading Democratic contenders for the nomination are Senator Hillary Clinton, and Senator Barack Obama, trailed by former Senator John Edwards and several also-rans. Among the Republicans there is currently a four-way race between Senator John McCain, former Governor Mitt Romney, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and former Governor Mike Huckabee, trailed by former Senator Fred Thompson, and Representative Ron Paul. McCain is currently leading by 10 points over Huckabee. Each party will officially name its ticket at its national convention in late August for the Democrats and early September for the GOP; the great majority of delegates will be selected in February and March.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been making preparations for the possibility of becoming an independent candidate. As a multi-billionaire he has the capacity to finance his own campaign without outside contributions or federal matching funds.

This election will select the 44th President of the United States and the 47th Vice President; their terms will begin Jan. 20, 2009. President George W. Bush, who has served two terms, is ineligible to run. Vice President Dick Cheney has long said he would not run. No one close to the Bush administration is in the race, and it has not favored any candidate.

Polls in early 2008 show a competitive November election, between top Democratic candidates (in poll standings) Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama vs. John McCain, while Clinton and Obama are currently ahead of the other Republicans.

Democrats in 2007

see U.S. Democratic Party

In the Democratic race, throughout 2007 Clinton had a wide lead over Obama and Edwards, but Obama gained rapidly in early 2008, while Edwards faded. In terms of campaign funding, the contenders in the two parties will spend some $2 billion to get the nomination.

Contenders

Clinton

Clinton has been a highly successful fundraiser. For calendar years 2001 through 2006 her total receipts were $51.6 million, with spending of $40.8 million. Clinton's best financed opponent is Barack Obama, trailed by John Edwards

Frank Luntz, the doyen of American campaign pollsters, observed in early December, 2007,

"Among Democrats, Obama has the momentum, but Clinton has the organization. Obama has been drawing the crowds and creating the buzz, but he has to turn curiosity into votes. But Clinton has one of the most formidable political organizations ever assembled. They play with broad shoulders and sharp elbows. They take no prisoners and accept no criticism. It's going to be quite a battle."

In 2007, Hillary Clinton led all the polls as first choice of Democrats, with especially strong support from women. In 2007 she raised $100 million for her campaign, about the same as her leading opponent Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Obama's attacks on her focused at first on her 2002 vote in support of the war in Iraq, which he opposed, By late 2007 Obama broadened his rhetoric by attacking her as as the representative of the old politics, with Obama proclaiming himself the agent of change. In response Clinton underscored Obama's inexperience, emphasizing the contrast between his vague promises of change and her long, concrete record of fighting for real change, a difference her campaign calls "talk versus action."

Obama scored an unexpected win on Jan. 3, in the Iowa caucuses, defeating Clinton and John Edwards by 8 points. With Obama seizing the momentum and attracting youthful voters, he appeared to be heading towards a win in New Hampshire, the first primary state, but Clinton won the primary 39% to 37% for Obama and 17% for Edwards. Clinton won by wide margins among women, poorer voters, union members, registered Democrats and older voters--that is, a profile that resembled the historic New Deal Coalition. With John Edwards trailing far behind and Bill Richardson dropping out, the Democratic contest focused on Obama and Clinton. Clinton defeated Obama in the Nevada caucus on Jan. 19; the two match up again in the South Carolina primary on Jan. 26, 2008.

Clinton, whose husband is especially popular in the black community, may be dividing the black vote with Obama, the strongest black candidate ever to run for president. Blacks comprise about 20% of the vote in the Democratic primary. When Clinton equated Lyndon B. Johnson with Martin Luther King in the passage of civil rights laws, and Bill Clinton called Obama's views on Iraq a "fairy tale", Black leaders expressed concern at a subtle racist tone. After a few days Obama and Clinton called a truce on the race issue.

Republicans in 2007

see U.S. Republican Party

Contenders

Huckabee

Mike Huckabee, little known nationally through mid 2007, he climbed the polls steadily and won the closely watched Iowa caucus on Jan. 3, 2008. His political base comprises evangelical Christians, who comprise 35% of the GOP voters nationwide. He has been attacked as a tax-and-spend liberal, especially by rival Fred Thompson..His funding base is meager, but national polls put him in first or second place, with John McCain, his main rival. Analysts point to his evangelical base, his conservatism, his appeal to southerners and his winsome personality as critical factors in his move from obscurity to the top rank of political contenders.

McCain

Arizona Senator John McCain in 2000 defeated George W. Bush in the New Hampshire and other primaries, but Bush came back to easily win the nomination, and then went on to win the very close election. McCain stands for civic duty and traditional conservative positions, especially regarding lower spending, lower taxes, opposition to abortion, and a strong foreign policy. Some conservatives complain about his longtime advocacy of campaign finance reforms that would weaken the power of special interest groups, saying they violate the First Amendment freedom of speech. Other conservatives object to his opposition to Bush's tax cuts in 2001, although McCain now supports their renewal.

A former Navy flier who was shot down in the Vietnam War and spent over five years as a prisoner of war in Hanoi, McCain has been a prominent voice on military and foreign affairs. He is especially outspoken in demanding forceful action in the Iraq war, and claims credit for the "surge" underway in 2007-8 under General David Petraeus.

McCain was the frontrunner for the 2008 presidential nomination according to the polls when his campaign imploded in summer 2007. He had spent all his money, direction was lacking, his staff was in turmoil, and most had to be terminated. McCain's standing fell sharply in the polls because of the unpopularity of his hardline Iraq position and his proposed bill (in cooperation with Bush and Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy) that would open a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Commentators wrote his obituary. But McCain fought back, using his drastically reduced funds to concentrate on a highly personal town-by-town "retail politics" campaign in the first primary state, New Hampshire. His main opponent Mitt Romney lost in the Iowa caucuses in early January, 2008, giving McCain momentum in New Hampshire. As supporters chanted "Mac is Back!" he defeated Romney 37%-32%, with Mike Huckabee trailing at 11%.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney, a businessman who came to national attention rescuing the scandal-ridden 2002 Olympics, served a term as governor of Massachusetts (2002-2006), with a moderate record that included fee increases (but not tax increases), a balanced budget, and the nation's first universal healthcare program. He supported abortion and gay rights. As a presidential candidate Romney sought the support of the business community and social conservatives. He reversed moderate positions on abortion and gay rights to take a hardline conservative position on them, and on opposition to illegal immigrants. Opponents charged he changed too often. Romney has been a leader in fund-raising, augmented by $17 million of his own fortune. He has sponsored by far the greatest number of TV commercials of any candidate. However he was little known outside of Massachusetts, so his strategy was to play for early wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, then "sling-shot" the momentum into national visibility. After leading in both states the tide turned suddenly and he lost to Mike Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire, while picking up some uncontested delegates in Wyoming. ("Two silvers and a gold," his spinmeisters announced.) Romney changed strategy and began denouncing Washington, emphasizing his business skills, and promising large-scale federal help to the troubled Michigan economy, where the domestic auto companies have been doing very poorly. He avoided oblivion by a decisive win by 9 points over McCain in the Michigan GOP primary on Jan 15, along with a less-noticed win in the lightly contested Nevada caucuses. Religion was at issue for evangelicals who saw Mormonism an undesirable cult; Romney, a prominent Mormon and former bishop, spoke in Texas on the need for religious tolerance. While his religion generally hurt his vote totals, it was a boon for him in Nevada, where polls showed one-fourth of the GOP caucus electorate was Mormon, and Romney won better than 90 percent of those voters. The South Carolina primary, with few Mormons and many evangelicals, appeared hopeless, so he pulled his advertising.

2008

The Republican primaries shows a contest in turmoil, which may indicate the splintering of the Reagan coalition of social conservatives, the religious right, national-defense hawks, and advocates of low taxes. McCain started with a large lead but collapsed in the spring, because of grass roots opposition to his liberal stance on immigration, and bad financial strategy that left the campaign broke. But McCain soldiered on, making a comeback in early January, 2008, and winning the New Hampshire primary by 37%-32% for Romney. Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York, used his heroic image from the 9-11 Attack, and promise of a strong counter-terrorism policy, to vault to the lead in mid-2007, despite moderate social policies that the large conservative wing disliked. In early December, however, his negatives were catching up and he fell from the 30% to the 20% level nationally, and ran a weak fourth in New Hampshire at 9%. His strategy involves a comeback in the Florida primary. Hollywood actor and former senator Fred Thompson entered the race late, but appealed to many conservatives looking for another Ronald Reagan. His ineffective campaign style led to a steady erosion of support; he polled 1% in New Hampshire. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, by reversing previous moderate positions, suddenly became a hard-line conservative spokesman. His Mormon religion, however, caused distrust among the religious conservatives who bulk large in some primaries. Romney's strategy was to pour millions of dollars (much of it his personal money) into Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping that victories there on January 3 and 8, 2008, would generate massive favorable publicity. That publicity supposedly would propel him into a dominant position in the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5, 2008, when 45% of the delegates will be chosen.

Every prediction and game plan was shattered in November, when Mike Huckabee, a little known former governor of Arkansas, shot to the top of the polls and won in Iowa. His base comprises evangelical Christians, who comprise 35% of national GOP voters. Evangelicals comprise 48%-68% of Republicans in the South and border states, 47% in Iowa, and only 11% in New Hampshire. They are 33% in Michigan, 29% in Florida, 27% in California and 14% in New York.

The candidates in primaries and caucuses

For daily updates on the polls see [9]

Iowa: Jan 3

Obama scored a surprise win in the Jan 3, Iowa caucuses, 9 points ahead of Edwards, who was slightly ahead of Clinton. He immediately gained so much momentum that many observers though the Clinton campaign was in danger of collapsing.

Republican Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, (and former Baptist minister), made a strong appeal to the religious conservatives. His base of support is "born again" evangelical Christians, who comprise 35% of national GOP voters and 47% of the GOP voters in Iowa. Years as a TV announcer gave him a polished yet informal campaign persona that no other candidate could match. Outspent by Romney 10-1, Huckabee nevertheless scored a major upset in the Iowa caucuses, coming in first and beating Romney by 9 points.

Voter behavior

• GOP entrance polls
• Dem. entrance polls

Clinton did well among voters over 50, liberals, and both the lowest and highest income groups. Obama, who won decisively, held huge leads among voters under 35. He also did best among those who are "very liberal" and those earning lower middle income ($35,000-$50,000). Edwards did best among men, those earning $75,000-$100,000, and 30-49 year olds.

The GOP pre-caucus polls in Iowa showed Huckabee at 29% and Romney at 28%, trailed by McCain at 11%. Huckabee led among 30-64 year olds, among "very conservative" Republicans, those earning $50,000-$100,000, and Born Again Christians. Romney led among Independents, both the youngest and oldest voters, moderates, and the lowest and highest income groups. John McCain was in third place by virtue of doing well (though not leading) among voters over 55 (especially over 65), and moderates.

New Hampshire: Jan 8

After his win in Iowa, Obama led in all the polls by an average of 10 points in New Hampshire, but Clinton stunned the political world by beating Obama 39%-37%, with Edwards at 17%.

McCain won the GOP contest by 37%-32% over Romney, who had previously dominated the polls in the Granite State. Huckabee ran third at 11%; about 11% of the state's Republicans are evangelicals.

Voter behavior

• GOP exit polls
• Dem exit polls

Obama did best among men, younger voters, independents, and college graduates, while Clinton led by wide margins among women, poorer voters, union members, registered Democrats and older voters--that is, her voter profile resembled the old New Deal Coalition.

Michigan: Jan 15

The Michigan primary was won by Clinton on Jan. 15 with 56% of the vote, but her main opponents had withdrawn and supported an "uncommitted" ticket. The reason was the national party stripped Michigan of all its delegates for breaking the national rules on primary dates.

After unexpected defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney promised to fight on, but stopped his TV ads in South Carolina (which has a primary on Jan. 19) to concentrate on the Jan. 15 Michigan primary in the state where he was born and his father was governor. Romney regained momentum by a 10 point win in Michigan over McCain.

Voter behavior

• GOP exit poll
• DEM exit poll

Exit polls show McCain lost soundly among registered Republicans--41% for Romney, 27% for McCain. McCain also lost among voters who considered the economy as the top issue—Romney 42% McCain 29%. He fared no better among those who said illegal immigration Polls show the economy may be looming more important as consumer confidence tumbles to the lowest levels of the post-9/11 era. Data released Jan 16 by Rasmussen Reports shows that 73% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse.

McCain did win among those consider the War in Iraq the top issue—McCain 41% Romney 31%. However, among those who considered the broader War on Terror as most important McCain and Romney were tied at 31%.

Nevada caucus: Jan 19

In a very low turnout caucus, Clinton claimed more voters and Obama more delegates. Most Republicans ignored the state, except for Romney who built on his Mormon base to win 51% of the people attending the GOP caucuses.

South Carolina: Jan 19 (R) and Jan. 26 (D)

McCain edged Huckabee 33%-30%, while Thompson edged out Romney for third place, 16%-15%. More than half of the TV commercials in the primary were Romney ads, but he gave up a few days early to solidify his lead in Nevada caucuses the same day. McCain won moderates and independents, and scored well among the large active-duty and retired military population. His supporters were more upscale (in terms of education and income) and more moderate (in terms of social issues) than Huckabee's. Many deeply religious voters flocked to Mike Huckabee, while nonevangelical conservatives splintered among McCain, Romney, Thompson, and Huckabee.

Florida: Jan 29

Analysts concluded McCain gained momentum from South Carolina to take into the important Florida primary. However, McCain ran even with Huckabee among registered Republicans, while carrying the Independent voters. In Florida, only registered Republicans can vote in the GOP primary, and polls show a tight four-way race. Rudy Giuliani, who polled a mere 2% in South Carolina, is competitive in Florida, where he has concentrated his campaign in a do-or-die effort to restore his sagging fortunes.

With Edwards trailing far behind and Bill Richardson dropping out, the Democratic contest focused on Obama and Clinton, who next face each other in the hard-fought South Carolina primary on Jan. 26. Obama's lead in the polls is founded on his black base, with blacks comprising about half the Democrats.

Florida: Jan. 29

Florida, with 16 million people, is a microcosm of the GOP: part Southern, part northern, part Republican establishment, part evangelical, with many conservative Cubans as well. Polls show McCain holding a narrow lead in a four-way race with Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney. It's do-or-die for Giuliani, whose national lead collapsed; he won only 2% in South Carolina and he sees Florida as his last chance to get back in the race. Independents, who gave McCain his win in South Carolina, are excluded here, as only registered Republicans can vote. Florida is important, with 57 delegates awarded to the statewide winner.

In the Democratic race Clinton has a huge 19 point lead over Obama. However the Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of all its delegates because it set its primary too early. That decision can be reversed by the national convention in August.

Enthusiasm

Democrats showed much greater enthusiasm for their candidates, turning out in far larger and more enthusiastic rallies, and numbering far more supporters in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, even though the parties were about evenly balanced in both states in 2000 and 2004. As 2008 opened the Democratic candidates have so far raised $223 million, compared with $152 million for Republican candidates.

Issues

Economy=

For both parties, the warning signs of a possible economic downturn or recession put the economics issue higher on the agenda in early 2008. As Congress works toward a bipartisan stimulus package, the candidates have begun offering their own proposals.

Iraq

For Democrats the central issue is the the depth of opposition to Bush's Iraq War; Republicans generally support Bush on Iraq. As of November 2007, polls on average show that over 60% of Americans believe that the war is not going well, and a central part of the 2008 campaigns have been each candidates' strategy to stabilize Iraq and set the stage for withdrawal for Iraq. Most Democratic candidates have stated that a withdrawal of troops is necessary to reduce the risk of further casualties of U.S. troops in Iraq, and will also help Iraqi forces become self-sufficient. Some Democratic candidates have stated that continuing U.S presence has abetted the rise of Al-Qaeda in Iraq with Senator Joe Biden stating "We must get our soldiers out of this civil war where they become justification for the Bush-fulfilling prophecy of Al-Qaeda in Iraq to flourish..."

On the contrary, almost every candidate for the GOP nomination has supported President Bush's call for an extended presence in Iraq, stating that the troops should be allowed to finish their assignment and that an early withdrawal could precipitate a breakdown of Iraq's parliamentary government, allowing it to fall to influence from Iran or Al-Qaeda. An exception to this has been Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, who was the Libertarian Party's presidential nominee in 1988, who has consistently advocated for a non-interventionist foreign policy and a withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

Immigration

A central issue for Republicans (but not Democrats) is the status of illegal immigrants, with a grass roots nativism hurting Giuliani. Debate goes on in the Republican party as to whether or not illegal immigrants should be granted a path to citizenship, although all candidates have stated their opposition towards businesses hiring them in America. Among the Democratic field, all candidates have stated a desire to allow a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, though each candidates' plans differ. Some have stated their support for a crackdown on businesses hiring undocumented workers. Huckabee came under heavy attack for his proposals in Arkansas to allow children who grew up in the state to obtain in-state tuition even if they entered illegally with their parents. Huckabee suddenly reversed positions and, along with Romney. took a hard line with talk of forcing illegals to return to Mexico. In the South Carolina primary, 26% of GOP voters said illegal immigration was the main issue; among this group Huckabee beat McCain 33%-24%. 52% of the state Republicans said illegals should be deported, and Huckabee beat McCain among this group by 34% to 26%. The 28% of GOP voters who want to give the illegals a path to citizenship gave McCain 44% of their vote, versus 31% for Huckabee.

Mechanics

The rules are complicated and differ for each state and each party.The campaign will have three stages. In January, come the preliminaries, with attention focused on the Iowa caucus (Jan. 3) and the New Hampshire primary (Jan 8), along with contests in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. Then comes Super Tuesday Feb 5, with 40% of the delegates chosen. After that a string of primaries will be held, which will become increasingly important if the races become deadlocked on Feb. 5. The nominees could possibly be undecided until the national conventions in August/September.

The Democratic party rules are that delegates are awarded to the candidate in proportion to their votes in the primary. In addition the Democrats have "superdelegates" who are party officials who automatically become delegates. The Republicans allow more complex rules. Several states (Florida, with a Jan. 29 primary, and New York and New Jersey with primaries on Feb. 5) have "winner take all" rules that magnify their importance.

Most states use primaries which are ordinary elections. Some are open only to party members; in other like New Hampshire, registered independents can vote in one or the other party primary.

The caucuses are a leftover from 19th century. In Iowa voters to go to a local school or meeting place; Republicans sign in with their vote and leave. Democrats must spend an hour or two in a "caucus" to register their preference. Supporters of candidates with under 15% at that caucus move to another candidate. The Democratic Iowa caucus is a mixture of discussion, debating, a little horse-trading, and some consensus-building between neighbors. Anything can happen, but the media will report on the distribution of support at the end of the evening. (The actual national delegates in Iowa will be chosen months later, and are few in number.)

Third parties choose their candidates at their own, smaller conventions that receive little coverage.

Interest groups

Labor unions

The New Deal Coalition forged by Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s dominated national politics until the mid-1960s. One key reason was the close alliance of the party with labor unions. Since the 1960s, however, union membership has fallen by 2/3. In the 1980s unions came under assault from business and the party was unable to help them. Unions in recent years have increased their activism in the election cycle, especially in terms of funding and get-out-the-vote campaigns.

In 2004 and 2006, unions spent a combined $561 million to help elect their preferred candidates (most of them Democrats). That is nearly a 50% increase over the $381 million spent on the previous two campaigns. However they are still outspent by business; in 2000, companies were responsible for three times as much spending as unions. By the 2006 election, companies and their employees spent $491 million on elections, compared with $264 million for labor unions. Labor spent $32 million on its own mailings and television and radio commercials for the 2004 and 2006 elections, a nearly fivefold jump over the previous four years. Polls show 74% of voters who belong to an AFL-CIO-affiliated union voted for the congressional candidate endorsed by their union in 2006, up from 70% in 2004 and 68% in 2002.

Candidates for the Democratic nomination

Top tier

• Hillary Clinton - Former First Lady (1993-2001) and Senator from New York since 2001
• John Edwards - Former Senator from South Carolina (1998-2004) and Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in 2004
• Barack Obama - Senator from Illinois since 2004

Second tier

• Mike Gravel - Former Senator from Alaska (1969-1981)
• Dennis Kucinich - Congressman from Ohio

Withdrawn candidates

• Joe Biden - Senator from Delaware since 1973, head of Senate Foreign Relations Committee
• Christopher Dodd - Senator from Connecticut since 1981
• Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico since 2003, Secretary of Energy from 1997-2001, Ambassador to the United Nations from 1997-1998

Candidates for the Republican nomination

Top Tier

• Rudy Giuliani - Mayor of New York City 1994-2001
• Mike Huckabee - Governor of Arkansas 1996-2007
• John McCain - Senator from Arizona 1987-present, sought GOP nomination in 2000 losing to Bush
• Mitt Romney - Governor of Massachusetts, 2002-2007

Second tier

• Duncan Hunter - Congressman from California, 1981-present
• Ron Paul - Congressman from Texas 1997-present, Libertarian Party presidential nominee in 1988
• Fred Thompson - Senator from Tennessee, 1994-2003, television and film actor

Withdrawn candidates

• Sam Brownback - Senator from Kansas, 1996-present, endorsed McCain
• Jim Gilmore - Governor of Virginia, 1998-2002, currently GOP nominee for 2008 Virginia U.S. Senatorial Election
• Tom Tancredo - Congressman from Colorado, 1999-present; endorsed Romney
• Tommy Thompson - Governor of Wisconsin 1987-2001, Secretary of Health and Human Services 2001-2005; endorsed Giuliani

Current newspaper and magazine reports

• Clinton
• Edwards
• Obama
• Giuliani
• Huckabee
• McCain
• Paul
• Romney
• Thompson

External links

• Delegate counts for major candidates; upcoming schedule
• Campaign journalism, statistical reports on media coverage