Deflation: Difference between revisions

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Defined as a sustained fall in the general level of prices, '''deflation''' can be the result of a sudden decline in economic activity.  
Defined as a sustained fall in the general level of prices, '''deflation''' can be the result of a sudden decline in economic activity.  


Its  immediate effect is to make consumers reduce their purchases in the expectation of being able to buy  more cheaply at a later date. A less obvious but more important effect is to require borrowers to repay more in real terms than they had borrowed(for example, if prices declined by 20 percent, a farmer who had previously borrowed £100 to buy ten pigs would have to repay the equivalent of twelve pigs). Another effect is to require employers to pay their employees the same wages  despite a reduction in income from their employees' output - or, to put it another way, to pay higher real wages for the same level of real output.
Deflation tends to make consumers reduce their purchases in the expectation of being able to buy  more cheaply at a later date. That can have a depressing effect upon demand and lead to  a reduction of output.  Another potentially important effect is to require borrowers to repay more than they had borrowed (for example, if prices declined by 20 percent, a farmer who had previously borrowed £100 to buy ten pigs would have to repay the equivalent of twelve pigs). The resulting loss to borrowers may be  balanced by gains to lenders, but if borrowers are forced to default, the resulting  disruption can lead to a further reduction in output.  Another effect is to require employers to pay their employees the same wages  despite a reduction in income from their employees' output. Unless there is a compensating wage reduction, that  may result in a reduction in employment and another reduction in output.  
 
Thus deflation can disrupt the economy by prompting consumers to delay their purchases, borrowers to default on repayments and employers to dismiss their employees. Each of those responses intensifies the initial decline in activity, and each further decline in activity intensifies the responses that produced it - and so on in a devastating spiral of economic decline and rising unemployment.
Given time, adjustments could be made  to limit the resulting output losses, but the output losses from a sudden and unexpected deflation could feed upon themselves by reinforcing the tendencies that produced them. For example the output loss from the deferrment of purchases could  lead to an increase in unemployment which could  prompt a further reduction in spending and thus  a further increase in unemployment.  


   
   

Revision as of 17:33, 15 December 2008

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Defined as a sustained fall in the general level of prices, deflation can be the result of a sudden decline in economic activity.

Deflation tends to make consumers reduce their purchases in the expectation of being able to buy more cheaply at a later date. That can have a depressing effect upon demand and lead to a reduction of output. Another potentially important effect is to require borrowers to repay more than they had borrowed (for example, if prices declined by 20 percent, a farmer who had previously borrowed £100 to buy ten pigs would have to repay the equivalent of twelve pigs). The resulting loss to borrowers may be balanced by gains to lenders, but if borrowers are forced to default, the resulting disruption can lead to a further reduction in output. Another effect is to require employers to pay their employees the same wages despite a reduction in income from their employees' output. Unless there is a compensating wage reduction, that may result in a reduction in employment and another reduction in output.

Given time, adjustments could be made to limit the resulting output losses, but the output losses from a sudden and unexpected deflation could feed upon themselves by reinforcing the tendencies that produced them. For example the output loss from the deferrment of purchases could lead to an increase in unemployment which could prompt a further reduction in spending and thus a further increase in unemployment.




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[2].

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  1. Pierre Siklos: Deflation, Economic History Services Encyclopedia
  2. Richard Burdekin and Pierre Siklos (eds): "Fears of Deflation and Policy Responses Then and Now." In Deflation: Current and Historical Perspectives, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004
  3. Paul Krugman: It’s Baaack! Japan’s Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap
  4. Deflation: Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options, Findings of an Interdepartmental Task Force, International Monetary Fund, April 2003